Chi Pro
NFL Situation Spotlight – # 36: The teams with a below average passing first% Down (% PFD)
Without doubt, these last 15 seasons the NFL was not too good for the winning teams (ie Squad with one or more 500 clocks up) when it comes to covering the line of Las Play Vegas and success ", on" the conditions that facilitate these teams were few and far between.
Situation # $ 36, not only this trend, but is actually happening on a scale that has not often been seen in any situation, since 1994, regardless of team records in question.
The premise here is pretty simple and it comes to equipment that normally receive the first through a game that falls below the League average.
I'm not necessarily very prudent in this case, efficacy transmission of game this team. I am concerned with the percentage of all first trials having passed through the completion of transition, also known as F% PFD (from First Down For%).
The league average for% PFD in most seasons since 1994 57-58% and, interestingly, the teams with an F% PFD of less than 57.5% deemed 1372-1250 (52.3) ATS during this period time which is just below the breakeven point in Paris on 10/11 Not bad odds that we are witnessing a growing trend of games that 2500 is based on only 1 condition.
Now, of course, teams can make a first down on a number of other ways, and completion pass: namely, through a game on the ground. Or, thanks to a penalty against their opponent has requested that provides enough yards to move channels.
It is the second step, I want to quantify as IFD% F (% first offense Down For)-which Interestingly, in this particular situation.
When a second condition is included stating that the team with the next PFD F% average also an F% IFD of less than 8%, which is usually placed at the bottom 3rd in the league for this statistic, the minutes of this relationship will a huge 583-454% (56.2) TTY, good enough for a profit of $ 8360.00 if you bet $ 110 to recover $ 100.00 each party.
So why this particular combination of the first in the statistics was also effective against infection?
Back to PFD% for a moment: to be below average in this category is actually a good thing for a number of reasons. It is a sign that the offense of this team probably had the luxury of playing with his head on a regular basis and has not been forced to launch a number of steps to come into the game trying to catch up. And they are also likely to have an effective operation of the game, which always sets a high number of "2nd and 3rd and short and short-term" situations where the ball may be delivered to one or more competent to run after the easy 1st down. Proof of this last point can be found by looking at the list of equipment this situation has played in most of the time during the last 15 years: Kansas City (before 2007) in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are the top 3, all teams which have occurred in the past to hit the ball through the middle for 6-7 yard gain on 1st down.
All very well until% PFD, but What about the stipulation of% DFI motivation?
In fact, I studied the nature and effects of sanctions from the NFL in detail in the last decade and although he had a handful of teams in the league who did a better job than others in the "strength" to his opponents to take penalties (pass interference calls on long passes offensive and the sides are the most numerous), more often than not, is something that is not easy to control.
Consequently, first teams hope their opponents always "envolver 'with low penalty in units of keeping bad life in the process, not be the best bet against the spread in the long term and classification of limited equipment, namely those who have an F% IFD of less than 8%, using to ensure that we are dealing with a team that has a low PFD F% more for the reasons mentioned above a glut of penalties calls that went in their favor.
In addition to restrictions on the first violation% Down For if we also take things further and limit% cons the IFD (IFD% A) for the two teams at under 8%, this situation is improving dramatically 161-72 (69.1%) ATS since 1994, which is pretty impressive considering the merits, we seek only 2 variables (FD PFD% and%) are also directly linked.
Here are all the details, including a final clause% participation in secondary IFD again.
(Notes: ASMR is the average gap Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average compared to the negative line smaller than average. TDIS% is the percentage teams of the league involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are 500 or more and RPD is the average difference of teams in this situation. For more details, see page 18 of my NFL 2009 Game Guide Reports).
Status Trend # 36 Summary
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) passing the first% Down For (F% PFD) <57.5%.
2)% first violation & Down Against (IFD% F% IFD A) <8%.
3) Exclude opponents with a% on the first against infringements% <8.
Secondary conditions (Tensors)
1) The computer does not have a% An advantage DFI (% DFI A DC)> 2.
State Statistics
RAMS: -0.1
Home%: 50
Dog%: 43
TDIS%: 94
% By Weight: 77
SPR: -0.9
Top teams: KC (21), JAC (16), TB (14), IND (10), WAS (10)
Registration Status
General (94): 121-41 ATS
Season 2008: ATS 12.7
2007 Season: 17.3 ATS
2006 Season: 12-4 ATS
2005 season: 10-2 ATS
2004 Season: 3-2 ATS
Last 5 results. Choose between parentheses.
2008 WK18-PHI 26 min 14 (min 3) L
2008 WK18-27 BAL MIA 9 (BAL -3.5) W
2008 WK17-27 BAL JAC 7 (BAL -12) W
2008 WK16-20 CHI GB 17 (CHI -3.5) L
2008 WK16-24 min 17 ATL (ATL 3) W
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
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